Both my MA and MTh studies had much to do with ministry dropout -- or sustainability, to put it positively. Ministry is tough, and so one may expect, on average, a halving of survival every ten years -- or worse, in the case of urban ministry. Here is how to calculate one's average chances of survival in ministry (bearing in mind that my formula is based on US statistics):
. . . . ▪ a = the year you started (e.g. 2007)
. . . . ▪ b = the current year
. . . . ▪ c = b - a (the years you have served)
. . . . ▪ c ÷ 10 = d
. . . . ▪ d + 1 = y
. . . . ▪ z= 2^y (or 2 xy y).
. . . . ▪ z ÷ 2 = e
. . . . ▪ 100 ÷ e = x
x, then, is your percentage chance of survival -- in my case about 11% over all the years, or 26% for my present / outgoing ministry. To put it simply, there is 89% chance that I would now be a plumber or a grocer, etc. OBSERVATION: However, I am not in favour of the notions of "sustainability" and "dropout", in their present forms. Perhaps I shall address that in another post. I myself continue now in a new, consulent ministry.
. . . . ▪ a = the year you started (e.g. 2007)
. . . . ▪ b = the current year
. . . . ▪ c = b - a (the years you have served)
. . . . ▪ c ÷ 10 = d
. . . . ▪ d + 1 = y
. . . . ▪ z= 2^y (or 2 xy y).
. . . . ▪ z ÷ 2 = e
. . . . ▪ 100 ÷ e = x
x, then, is your percentage chance of survival -- in my case about 11% over all the years, or 26% for my present / outgoing ministry. To put it simply, there is 89% chance that I would now be a plumber or a grocer, etc. OBSERVATION: However, I am not in favour of the notions of "sustainability" and "dropout", in their present forms. Perhaps I shall address that in another post. I myself continue now in a new, consulent ministry.
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