Alas, not every good piece gets published. It was News24 which rejected an article in March, in which I noted that it was crucial that we obtain an unbiased sample of the COVID-19 infection rate in South Africa. I did not predict what one would find through that, however the rules of logic say that things might be very different than they seem. Finally it has been done in Massachusetts. At the "epicentre of the crisis" there they took an unbiased sample, of 200 people. Existing statistics said the infection rate was around 2%. In the (fairly) unbiased sample, it was 30%. This means that the fatality risk may be a small fraction of what was imagined. The city manager said, "We've long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting ..." The story is on Fox News.
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