The President's Sums

The president gave a speech last night -- the full text of which is at EWN. He quickly got to the point. In line five, there have been one-million cases of COVID-19 in the country. In line six, there have been 27 000 fatalities, (solely, it seems he says) attributable to COVID-19. Therefore 1.7% of the population has had it (or has it), which means a 2.7% case fatality rate. But the BBC says no, not 1.7%, at least 25%, based on "evidence". This would put fatalities at 0.18% at most. If the BBC is correct, then the government would be out by a factor of 15+, which is unthinkably large. OBSERVATION: The question is then, how would or should such figures affect policy? Someone said to me, but the hospitals are overflowing. That in itself is cause for great concern. At the same time, I think of my admission to ICU once, in quiet times. One bed was free, for a short time. In other words, one needs to look at one's assumptions about hospital care.