Under 40% (Not)

When I predicted "well under 40%" for our ruling ANC (see the previous post), I was thinking 37%. That means that I was 3% off the mark. The large majority of predictions -- the BBC, Reuters, the ANC itself -- were not that close. The Economist, however, had 43%. OBSERVATION: I reached my estimate through my knowledge of the history of how people had previously voted, across various population groups -- and what they were saying now. Recounts could possibly bring the ANC's final tally down.